Refining production volume and product sales predictions

Supply Chain Management

Product Production and Sales Forecasting

The database DMW Consultancy created for its client accumulates sales data about several thousand products that are sold in over 100 countries.

To forecast patterns of future sales, the database projects these data forward by combining a product lifetime profile and a seasonal weighting profile with a statistical weighting factor.

The forecasts are presented for each regional marketing manager to make their adjustments.

The final projections are used as the basis for determining the manufacturing schedules of the client's three factories in the UK, Sweden and The Netherlands.

We understand that our client sees the database as a cost-effective prototype for key elements of a fully-fledged manufacturing supply chain management system.


Value to Client

A systematic approach to forecasting sales and production levels:

  • Sensitive to seasonal product sales profiles
  • Sensitive to product lifetime profiles
  • Time savings preparing sales forecasts
  • Time savings preparing production volumes forecasts
  • Improved control of manufacturing volumes
  • Rapid revision of any forecast
  • Complete record of forecasts submitted
  • Comparisons of forecasts against actual sales
  • Continuous refinement of lifetime profile of products
  • Continuous refinement of seasonal sales profiles
  • Cost-effective, fully-functional prototype.

Client

Subsidiary of an international PLC supplying products to the pharmaceutical industry and health services.


Platform

Microsoft Access and VBA. Custom product volume profiling algorithms devised by DMW.